A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
