🔗 Share this article

The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had finally been halted in a international match.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, indeed, you know the rest.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Team News

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, their chicanery, they secure victory.

As match day approaches where the optimism that some may have held for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and 60 in the second half.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - and keep it there.

In recent years, successful opponents have needed to score in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.