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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently serves as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking upset.

But the latest competition is profoundly different. The pool of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent division champions falling away and recent strugglers improving collectively. During an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and fun year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the chance to display his special talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still